Jane,
I'm going to ask politely if you can read CalPundit's post, Kieran Healy's post, and my post, and still feel comfortable with the conclusion that John Lott has been vindicated. In order for John Lott to be vindicated, you have to believe that he conducted a survey of 2424 people
- without notifying the Human Subjects committee
- paying thousands and thousands of dollars out of his own pocket (of which he has no record) all for one line in his book*
- with callers making thousands of long-distance calls out of their own rooms (for whom he has no names)
- without creating a single piece of paper that relates to the survey
- even though he's changed his story about where the 98% figure came from
- even though this survey couldn't possibly have been completed by the time his book came out
- even though a perfectly sampled, perfectly weighted study would have such a small relevant sample that he'd have a 20% margin of error
- even though no other survey has found results anywhere close to his numbers
You're willing to believe all of that because one pro-gun activist has stepped forward and said that he was interviewed?
For the record, I've never said a kind word about Bellesiles, and I'm pretty agnostic about guns. I lose my top, however, when I see intelligent people excusing or dismissing obvious academic fraud because it's useful for their cause. If this is the way we're going to evaluate evidence (useful to my side= correct), what's the point of performing studies? We should just watch Crossfire and see who gets the loudest cheers.
*To make sure that no one misses this- Lott defenders have pointed out that it's just one sentence in his book (albeit, a sentence he's repeated 50 times in interviews). Fine. So we're supposed to believe that Lott spent somewhere between $4,000 and $15,000 of his own money so that he could write that one sentence?
